A Stable Future
Monday, 10 August 2009 By Zia Ur Rehman The second-ever presidential vote in the Afghanistan´s chaotic history of coups and wars is scheduled for August 20. International media and policy makers plus the Obama administration in Washington are linking the stability in Afghanistan with the stability in the region, therefore new strategies have been chalked out regarding Afghanistan by all the International, regional and local players. Washington has already increased its military presence to 56,000 troops from about 32,000 in late 2008, in part to provide extra security for the August vote. The US has also promised a further increase and the number will go up to 68,000 by year´s end in order to hold the polls in a peaceful environment. On the other hand, the Taliban has call of a boycott of the poll and threatened to increase its attack to disrupt the polls. According to Afghanistan´s electoral system, the President is elected by direct votes to serve a five-year term and every presidential candidate is supposed to nominate his/her two vice-presidents while seeking nomination for himself/herself. The ultimate list released by Afghanistan´s election commission on its official website revealed that 41 candidates including two women, one former president and two former cabinet ministers, are participating in this presidential vote. Three candidates out of 44 were barred from the polls by the Election Commission for failing to meet the requirement for the candidacy. Political experts agree that there are only three strong contesters in the final list, Hamid Karzai, the incumbent President, Dr Asharaf Ghani Ahmedzai, the former Finance Minister and Abdullah Abdullah, the former Foreign Minister. Hamid Karzai, hailing from the tribe of Popalzai of Kandahar, is again contesting the presidential poll despite severe criticism of corruption, bad governance, failure for eliminate the Taliban and the worst law and order situation in his tenure. In the beginning, the newly-elected Obama administration tried to find an alternative of Karzai and invited his four strongest rivals, including Dr Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, Gul Agha Sherazi, popular governor of Nangarhar and Anwar-ul-Ahday, former Finance Minister, to Washington for attending President Obama´s oath-taking ceremony, but the US think tanks related to Afghanistan advised Obama to keep Karzai in the presidency for another term to strengthen the stabilisation process in Afghanistan. Karzai registered the incumbent Vice President Karim Khalili and former Defense Minister Muhammad Qasim Fahim for positions as vice-presidents. Both candidates are notorious for their severe human rights abuses and corruption but the experts opine that due to the nominations of Khalili and Fahim, Karzai could easily get votes from the influential Tajik and Hazara communities in the polls. The supporters of Karzai claim that the main rationale behind the appointment of Fahim and Khalili is to strengthen the harmony amongst the different communities living in Afghanistan. To favour Karzai, ex-Nangarhar province Governor Gul Agha Sherazi had withdrawn his candidature which also strengthens Karzai´s position in the presidential poll. Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai, hailing from the province of Lugar, remained the Finance Minister after the fall of Taliban from 2002 to 2004. A PhD in Anthropology from Columbia University and the Head of Institute of State Effectiveness, Ghani is termed by Afghan political observers as Karzai´s toughest rival in the elections especially in Pashtoon dominated areas of the country. Ghani also served as the Chancellor of Kabul University, worked for the preparation of the Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) and the constitution of Afghanistan. Ghani is reportedly considered close to Richard Holbrooke, recently appointed as Obama´s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ghani nominated Muhammad Ayub Rafiqui and Dr Muhammad Ali Najeebzada as his vice-presidents; both are new faces in the politics of Afghanistan. In his election manifesto, Ghani highlighted the importance of establishing a representative administration, good governance, building a dynamic economy and creating employment opportunities for the Afghan people. According to Wali Agha, a local journalist from Kabul, Ghani is widely supported by Afghanistan´s educated class and in Pashtoon tribal areas. Ghani may give a tough time to Karzai in the polls, but having less support in Tajik and Hazara areas, the possibility of his success is very low. Abdullah Abdullah, a close associate of late commander Ahmed Shah Masood, remained the Foreign Minister in both the transitional government and then Karzai´s cabinet, but in 2006 he was dropped from the Cabinet. In the forthcoming presidential election, he is going to confront Karzai with keeping Chiragh Ali Chiragh (a Kabul University Professor) and Homayun Shah Asifi ( a political leader who is member of the royal family), as his vice president running mates. Experts believe that Abdullah´s support appears largely limited to Tajik areas but the nominations of Fahim and Khalili by Karzai as vice-presidents can split Abdullah´s Tajik vote badly. Former Taliban commander Mullah Salam Rocketi, hailing from the province of Zabul, earned his nicknamed for his skill at using rocket-propelled grenade launchers against Soviet troops in the 1980s, is also another contester for the presidency. After 9/11, Rocketi, commander for Jalalabad, surrendered his weapons to a spiritual figure Ismail Gilani, who was a supporter of Hamid Karzai, and chose to become politician and then became an MP from Zabul. Shahnawaz Tanai, belonging from Khost, is a former communist leader of Khalaq faction of People´s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) and served as minister of defense from 1988 to 1990 under Dr. Najibullah and then with Gulbadin Hekmatyar´s support, revolted against Dr. Najibullah´s government in 1990, is also a candidate and is currently heading a political party known as Da Afghanistan Da Solay Ghorzang Gond (Afghanistan Peace movement). The two women contenders are Dr Faroozan Fana and Shela Atta. The former is the widow of Abdul Rehman, an interim minister for Aviation and Tourism who was killed at Kabul Airport in a plane bound to New Delhi and the latter is a member of parliament who is famous for criticising Karzai in parliament. Dr Abdul Jabbar Sabit, a former Attorney General fired in July last year accused for the corruption and breaches of law, is also willing to give a tough time to Karzai in the election. Sabit, a close aide of Gulbadin Hekmatyar in the past, is considered a controversial figure known for his anti-corruption drive across the country. Hidayat Amin Arsala is also another contester. After receiving his doctorate in Economics from George Washington University, he joined World Bank. In 1987, he came back to Afghanistan to join the ongoing resistance movement against Soviet invasion and then served as member of the Supreme Council of Afghan unity of Mujahidin. After 9/11, he was also chosen vice-president of the Cabinet with Hamid Karzai in the transitional government. A former Minister for Planning and serving MP, Dr Ramazan Bashardost is also a contender. Bashardost nominated Muhammad Musa Barekzai, a professor of Agriculture and Afifa Maroof, a famous human rights activist as vice-presidents. Basir Ahmed Hotak, a journalist says the voting generally follows ethnic lines and appears certain to produce a president from the majority of Pashtoons. ´´Karzai is facing a huge criticism by his rivals in the poll especially regarding the corruption, law and order situation, bad governance and massacre of the common people but his election campaign in Afghanistan appears almost unassailable amid opposition disarray.´´ Hotak also reveals that many of the aspirants contesting the presidential vote have American passports who announced to cancel their US citizenships after a ban imposed by the courts but interestingly no one has submitted documentary proof to the courts as to the cancellation. The writer is a freelance journalist, works on the Security issues and Political affairs in the Pak-Afghan areas. Email: [email protected] e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it (This article has previously published in The News International Karachi ) د پښتنو قامی سنګر - 
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